[lkm]

I have no idea, as yet I haven't got round to read the book.

[Redsand11j]

Does it agree with what happened more than 200 years ago?

[lkm]

It would seem to predict that within 5 to ten years an cycle should begin and we should expect to see a number of unrelated technologies suddenly become feasable and the basis for the next sixty pears. Perhaps we can already see it with Pollywell fusion and the state of scramjet development.

[Redsand11j]

I'm talking more sociopolitical than economic. What does this predict, then?

[lkm]

If you want a theory of history I'm currently fond of the long wave theory.
http://www.joshuagoldstein.com/jgcycle.htm
Basically there's a forty to sixty year cycle recurrent through the last two hundred years or so of post industrial revolution history. The cycle begins with the concurrent development of a host of new technologies, there is then twenty to thirty years of above average growth as these are exploited and the most immediate gains are realized, followed by twenty to thirty years of below average growth or reccession as the diminishing returns of those initial technologies are reached. Then the cycle begins again.
We're supposed to be at the tail end of the 1940's cycle (jet plane, nuclear power, rockets, computing, etc).